The SSL Future

Craig DiLouie April 17, 2012

LEDs are currently dominating product development in the lighting industry, but still only represent about 5-10% of luminaire sales, and only 1% of the installed base of lamps in the United States, as shown below. And most of that is traffic signals and exit signs. This is a sobering reminder that LED lighting is still a very young technology.

That being said, the future appears to belong to this light source, with the potential to reduce U.S. Lighting consumption by nearly half and reduce carbon emissions by 1.8 billion metric tons, according to the Department of Energy. DOE further predicts that LED will achieve a market share, expressed as demand for lumen-hours, of 10% by 2015, with the smallest gain being in the commercial building sector (5%) and the largest in outdoor stationary sector (29%). LED share is expected to increase to about 36% in 2020, 59% in 2025 and 74% in 2030, with the biggest long-term gains being in outdoor and residential lighting. Shown below in this graphic is the resulting change to the installed base of lamps in the country (expressed in terms of demand for lumen-hours), with LED expected to represent 50% of all installed lighting in the U.S. by 2030.

This growth is based on expectations that LED lighting will continue to improve in efficacy, service life and cost. Efficacy is expected to improve to 145 lumens/W by 2015, and then plateau at the technology’s theoretical limit of efficiency of about 200 lumens/W.

Indoor luminaire average life is expected to increase from 25,000 hours in 2010 to 44,000 hours in 2015, and 48,000-50,000 hours from 2020 to 2030, while outdoor luminaire average life, estimated at an average 50,000 hours in 2010, is expected to increase to 68,000 hours in 2015 and 73,000-75,000 hours from 2020 to 2030.

While efficacy and service life increase, initial cost is expected to decline from about $181 per kilolumen in 2010 to $41.81 in 2015 and $12.73 in 2030.

Sources: The 2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization Report and Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, both by the Department of Energy, download here