Craig’s Lighting Articles

Lighting Predictions 2030

My contribution to the January 2022 of ELECTRICAL CONTRACTOR looks at BEYOND 2030, a publication by the Illuminating Engineering Society in which industry thought leaders imagine the state of lighting in 2030 and beyond, challenges our industry faces this decade, and where it should focus its energies.

Media-driven environments, networked controls, DC power and healthy lighting are just a few topics covered, providing a palette of fascinating possibilities for the future of light. As an example of the predictions:

Mark Lien’s “Lighting Forecast by the Decades” is a snapshot piece packing many predictions. By 2030, he says, LED will have saturated the exterior lighting market. Energy standards will have been consolidated or eliminated, with only a minimum and a stretch standard offered. Government will shift from focusing on boosting energy efficiency to minimizing carbon. Renewable energy will be even more attractive. Augmented reality will enable a preview of how lighting will look and perform in a space.

By 2040, Lien adds, exterior lighting will center around a digital platform for a menu of technologies that includes light. Solar power for exterior lighting will be more efficient, while roadway lighting will adapt to self-driving vehicles. Glare will still be an issue, while lighting designed to optimize health will be widely adopted.

What do you think? Where is lighting headed during this decade?

Click here to check it out.

  • David Shiller January 18, 2022, 1:23 PM

    Mr. Lien’s predictions are insightful, as always.DOE predicts color-mixing white LED will match and later exceed blue-pump phosphor-converted LED performance in the next 5-10 years.This will further boost efficacy, but more importantly, will greatly expanded spectral tuning capabilities for light+health, ultra-high color rendering, color tuning, color-changing, and even light therapy capabilities beyond circadian goals. I think this impending shift to color-mixing white will be the biggest change in technology and spectral tuning capabilities.


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