Moderating Economic Growth Results in Downgraded Construction Forecast for 2017 and 2018

The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast projects annual growth in the 3.5% to 4% range for the remainder of 2017 as well as for 2018, with a slower growing commercial/industrial market, and an institutional sector facing several challenges. While some slowdown in the commercial sector was anticipated for 2017 and 2018, it was expected to be offset by acceleration in the institutional sector. However, year-to-date growth in spending for institutional buildings is at only 3%, well below expectations when the year began.

The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, Dodge Data & Analytics, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS Markit, Moody’s Economy.com, ConstructConnect, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 18 to 24 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 18 years.

“Despite billings at architecture firms performing quite well this year, the larger construction industry is facing a range of issues,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The somewhat weaker outlook is driven by several factors, some dealing with the broader U.S. economy, some dealing with general construction industry fundamentals, and some dealing with weakness in specific construction sectors.”

Click here for an in-depth look at the new forecast.

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